Reasons for the sharp decline in Covid-19 cases remains in mist

Friday February 12, 2021 at 5:52 pm

After reporting a hike in Covid-19 cases in India in the month of September and October 2020, the graph shows a completely different status now. The chilly winter in combination with the lifting up of the lockdown barrier was supposed to increase the number of cases, but it has gradually decreased in number.  Hence, the reason for this unexpected decline remains a mystery, reports GlobalData.

In contrast to US., India shows a current rate of 10 per one million population when compared to 370 new cases per one million population.

“This is astounding as until recently, experts were predicting that India would overtake the US as the most heavily affected country in the world. This decline seems to be real as the testing positivity rate has also declined to around two percent, and hospitalizations and mortality are also lower than in the first wave. This lends support to the argument that cases are indeed declining in India”, comments Bishal Bhandari, Ph.D., Senior Epidemiologist at GlobalData.

Supporting explanations for the decline in cases can be provided by the Non – pharmacological intervention (NPI). Mandatory usage of masks and social distancing could have a positive effect on the decrease in number. As India is a densely populated country, maintaining social distancing remains next to impossible.

“Importantly, India has a relatively younger population compared to European countries, which suggests that the outcome will be more favorable for positive cases in Indians. Indians may also have innate immunity from previous exposure to related infections in their lives that could boost their immune response to the novel coronavirus”, adds Bhandari.

There is a mild expectation that India’s hot and humid climate can aid in tackling the spread of the virus, though countries like Brazil and Mexico, in spite of having the same environmental factors did not benefit much.

“India should not be complacent as new viral mutations in South Africa, Brazil, and the UK are causing an alarm around the world. These mutations allow the virus to be more contagious and may cause vaccines to be less effective. India should remain vigilant and continue to implement proactive public health measures to prevent the spread of these variants”, adds Bhandari.